Quebecers head to the polls Monday in a provincial election that could hand power to a party openly committed to breaking the province away from Canada — even as its own leader insists he won't actually hold a referendum until Donald Trump leaves the White House.

Polls show the sovereigntist Parti Québécois comfortably ahead of Premier François Legault's governing Coalition Avenir Québec and the Quebec Liberal Party, which are running roughly even for second place, according to Reuters reporting picked up by The Star. A Léger poll projects the PQ winning around 49 seats — short of the 64 needed for a majority, but enough to form government.

A Referendum, Just Not Yet

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has made a point of telling voters not to fear a renewed push for sovereignty. He's pledged not to call a referendum on Quebec independence until after Trump's second term ends in January 2029, according to Al Jazeera.

"DON'T FEAR A REFERENDUM."

— Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, PQ leader, to Quebec voters.

The caution reflects the numbers: a Léger poll found just 25% of Quebecers would vote "yes" to independence if a referendum were held tomorrow, and nearly 60% say making Quebec a country isn't good policy in the first place, per CTV News. Voters appear ready to back the PQ on everything but the one issue that defines it.

What's driving the swing instead is anger over the cost of living and a strained health care system, which has battered Legault's CAQ after two terms in power — along with Quebec's exposure to Trump's trade war, which has hit the province's aluminum and softwood lumber industries especially hard. Trump remains more unpopular in Quebec than almost anywhere else in Canada.

If no clear sovereigntist mandate emerges Monday, Quebec's independence question will likely stay shelved for years regardless — leaving the PQ to govern on economic grievances it didn't campaign to fix. Final results are expected late Monday night.