President Trump is returning to Texas on Wednesday for a rally in San Antonio alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, his second trip to the state in barely a week, as one of the reddest states in the country has somehow turned into one of the most competitive Senate races of the midterms.

Trump is also stumping for House candidate Carlos De La Cruz at the event. But the main event is Paxton, the Texas attorney general locked in what NBC News now rates a flat-out toss-up against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico — a stunning position in a state where Republicans haven't lost a statewide race since 1994.

The Numbers Are Ugly for Paxton

A New York Times/Siena poll conducted over the final nine days of September found Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45% among likely voters. A Fox News poll released around the same time showed the race essentially tied, with Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%. Even an earlier, friendlier poll for Paxton still had him trailing, 46% to 43%.

DEMOCRATS HAVEN'T WON A U.S. SENATE SEAT IN TEXAS SINCE 1988

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a fellow Republican who typically shares a stage with Trump at these events, is skipping Wednesday's rally, citing scheduling conflicts — a detail that hasn't gone unnoticed among Texas political watchers. Republicans are reportedly pouring nine figures into a late rescue effort for Paxton's campaign.

An Awkward Family Endorsement

Adding to the drama, Paxton's estranged wife, Angela Paxton, released an ad urging Texans to back his Senate bid — without once mentioning his name directly, according to CNN. The two are in the midst of a divorce Angela filed for last year, citing infidelity.

Democrats see the seat as central to their long-shot bid to flip the Senate majority, and Talarico, a former public school teacher, has outperformed national Democrats' expectations throughout the race. Trump's camp is betting a late personal push — his second visit in a week — can close the gap before Election Day.