Voters in California's 14th Congressional District head to the polls Tuesday in a special runoff that has quietly become one of the most expensive House races of the year — not because of what the candidates are spending, but because of who else is writing checks. According to a Washington Post analysis, AIPAC-aligned super PACs have poured more than $5 million into the East Bay contest to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell, almost entirely aimed at stopping progressive state Sen. Aisha Wahab.

The spending is lopsided by any measure. The AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project alone has put in $1.2 million, while Bold America PAC has spent more than $555,000 attacking Wahab and over $1.6 million boosting her opponent, BART Board President Melissa Hernandez — roughly $2.9 million in AIPAC-affiliated money behind Hernandez so far this cycle. That dwarfs what the campaigns themselves have raised: Hernandez pulled in $1.53 million and spent $1.35 million through late July, while Wahab raised $631,000 and spent $484,000, per campaign finance figures reported by ABC7 News.

A Rematch With History

Wahab, who already made history as the first Muslim woman and Afghan American elected to the California Legislature, has beaten Hernandez head-to-head twice before — including a 26-point blowout in June's primary. That track record is exactly why the last-minute spending blitz has drawn national attention: it's an unusually aggressive attempt to reverse a race that outside groups have already lost twice. Public safety policy and foreign policy positioning, particularly on Israel, have been central flashpoints in the closing weeks, according to reporting from The Hill.

The district has been without full representation since Swalwell left the seat, and whichever candidate wins Tuesday's runoff will be sworn in to serve out the remainder of the term before facing voters again in November's general election.

Results are expected to start coming in Tuesday night as ballots are counted across Alameda County. Neither campaign has publicly previewed a concession or victory strategy, and both sides say they expect a close finish given the district's recent electoral history.