Republicans spent most of 2025 redrawing House maps in seven states to insulate their narrow majority from the usual midterm backlash against a sitting president's party. With eight days to go before the 2026 midterms, that bet is proving far more expensive — and far less certain — than GOP strategists promised.

More than a dozen congressional districts that Republican-controlled legislatures redrew to lean safely red in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas are now drawing tens of millions of dollars in last-minute ad spending because several have slid back into toss-up territory, according to NPR's analysis of AdImpact advertising data published Monday. Nathan Gonzales, editor of the nonpartisan Inside Elections, told NPR the maps were supposed to hand Republicans a cushion of roughly 15 seats. "It just has not turned out that way," he said.

Where the money is pouring in

North Carolina's newly drawn 1st District — which Donald Trump would have carried by more than 11 points in 2024 — has become one of the cycle's costliest House races, with over $42 million in ad spending since September 1 as Republican Laurie Buckhout tries again to unseat Democratic Rep. Don Davis, who is running on his third map in three elections. Buckhout calls the math simple: more registered Republicans than Democrats. But North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, who is also working Roy Cooper's Senate campaign, told NPR that Republicans "thought they got rid of Don Davis" through redistricting and found instead he "has always been a tough out" — predicting the cycle will be remembered for producing a "dummymander" rather than a gerrymander.

Florida's redrawn 14th and 25th Districts, built to squeeze out Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz, are together nearing $90 million in combined spending, and Cook Political Report now rates both as toss-ups, according to Newsweek's review of the same ad-tracking data. In Ohio's 9th District, Republicans have put roughly $10 million behind Derek Merrin's bid to oust longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, with an internal Democratic poll showing the race tied at 48 percent. And in South Texas, three districts redrawn for a 10-point Trump advantage — represented by Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez and Republican Monica De La Cruz — have drawn roughly $29 million combined as a once-assumed Hispanic-voter shift toward the GOP shows signs of reversing.

The overspend is forcing hard choices elsewhere. The Congressional Leadership Fund, Speaker Mike Johnson's main super PAC, has pulled support from several incumbents — including Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks — to redirect roughly $10 million into the newly competitive redrawn seats, while national Republican committees have also begun shifting money into once-safe Trump states, according to a wire report on the spending reshuffle. "Money is still a finite resource, and they have to figure out where to best spend it," University of Massachusetts Amherst political scientist Ray La Raja said of the shift. "They're willing to give up seats to protect their majority."

"Republicans thought they got rid of Don Davis. He has always been a tough out." — Morgan Jackson, North Carolina Democratic strategist, to NPR

Republicans currently hold the House 218-214, meaning Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to flip the chamber, and both the Cook Political Report and recent generic-ballot polling have moved further toward Democrats in recent weeks. NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella disputed the narrative that redistricting has backfired, telling reporters Republicans remain "well-positioned to hold the House and grow our majority" and calling Democratic-led redistricting efforts in states like California "colossal failures."

Whether the redrawn districts hold or flip will be decided Nov. 3, and strategists in both parties say the outcome in places like North Carolina's 1st and Ohio's 9th could determine which party controls the House for the rest of Trump's term.