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Alaska Could Get Its First Democratic Governor in a Generation as Kreiss-Tomkins Pulls Away in Ranked-Choice Count
A preliminary ranked-choice tally has 34-year-old Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading 55% to 45%, putting him on track to be the state's first Democratic governor since 2002 — though the race hasn't been officially called.
Nine days after Alaskans went to the polls, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is pulling away in the race for governor, with a preliminary ranked-choice tabulation from election-reform group FairVote putting him ahead 55% to 45% over his closest Republican rival. Neither candidate has declared victory or conceded, and Alaska's elections division accepts absentee ballots for up to 15 days after Election Day, meaning a final, certified result could still be days or weeks away.
If the lead holds, Kreiss-Tomkins would become Alaska's first Democratic governor since Tony Knowles left office in 2002, and at 34 he would also be the youngest governor in state history.
How he got here
Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator from Sitka, was one of three Democrats who initially entered the race before fellow Democrat Tom Begich withdrew after the August primary to consolidate the party's support behind him. That left him as the only Democrat on a ballot crowded with Republicans, including Treg Taylor and Dave Bronson, who advanced through Alaska's open primary system. Early returns after the Nov. 3 election showed Kreiss-Tomkins already ahead, and his margin has grown through nearly two weeks of counting as more ballots — including those from Alaska's heavily Democratic southeast panhandle — have been tabulated.
WOULD BE ALASKA'S FIRST DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR SINCE 2002
Alaska's ranked-choice system means a candidate needs more than 50% to win outright; if no one clears that bar on first-choice votes, lower-finishing candidates are eliminated and their voters' next choices are redistributed until someone does. Forecasters had rated the race anywhere from a toss-up to lean-Democrat in the race's final weeks, with some analysts cautioning the final margin could be tighter than pre-election polling suggested once every absentee and early ballot is counted.
A Kreiss-Tomkins win would hand Democrats a Republican-held statehouse in a year already marked by scattered red-state upsets in state and federal races. Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who won re-election in 2022, did not seek a third term. Neither the Kreiss-Tomkins nor Taylor campaigns issued new statements as the count continued into the weekend.