Record $275 Billion Online Holiday Spending Forecast as Black Friday Looms
Adobe projects Americans will spend a record $275.1 billion online this holiday season, while Bain forecasts total US holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time.
NEW YORK — Retailers are bracing for a record holiday season, with new forecasts from Adobe and consulting firm Bain & Company projecting that Americans will spend more than ever between Thanksgiving and New Year's, even as some analysts warn the overall growth rate is slowing.
Adobe's holiday shopping report forecasts a record $275.1 billion in US online spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, up 6.7% from last year. Black Friday alone is expected to generate $12.9 billion in online sales, up 9.2%, while Cyber Monday — falling this year on Nov. 30 — is projected to bring in $15.1 billion, up 6.2%, keeping its title as the season's single biggest online shopping day.
A Trillion-Dollar Season
Bain's separate forecast, covering total retail spending both online and in stores, projects the Black Friday-through-Cyber Monday stretch will top $85 billion — about 8.5% of all holiday-season spending — and that total holiday sales will cross $1 trillion for the first time, a 4.5% increase over last year.
MORE THAN 90% OF SHOPPERS PLAN TO HIT A MAJOR SALE EVENT
Not every forecaster is quite as bullish. Analysts at eMarketer and Salesforce are projecting more modest overall holiday sales growth of 4.1% — still above 2025's 2.7% pace, but tempered by higher gas prices, persistent inflation and tariff-driven cost pressure on retailers. Bain nonetheless found that more than 90% of US consumers plan to shop a major Black Friday, Cyber Monday or similar sales event this year.
Shopper budgets may be tightening even as overall dollar totals climb: PwC projects average per-person gift spending will dip about 2% to $708, down from $721 last year, as value-driven shoppers become more selective about where they spend. Adobe also expects traffic to retail sites driven by AI shopping assistants to jump 130% year over year, and projects buy-now-pay-later spending will rise 6.6% to $21.3 billion this season.
What's Next
Black Friday falls on Nov. 27 this year. Retailers will be watching early Black Friday and Cyber Monday data closely as the first real test of whether forecasters' optimism holds up against a more budget-conscious consumer.