The country's biggest retailers are about to tell Wall Street — and shoppers — exactly how worried to be about the holidays. Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's all report quarterly earnings during the week of November 17, in a stretch analysts are watching closely for signs of how stretched American consumers really are heading into Black Friday.

Home Depot leads off Tuesday, November 17, at 9 a.m. ET, followed by Target on Wednesday and Lowe's around the same day, with Walmart closing out the week on Thursday, November 19. Ross Stores and Best Buy report the following week.

What the numbers need to show

Bank analysts cited in an earnings preview project Home Depot will post third-quarter comparable sales growth of 2.5%, ahead of the broader Wall Street consensus of 1.5%, with earnings per share around $4.05 versus a $3.84 consensus. Target is projected to show comparable sales growth of 4.2%, well above the Street's 3.3% estimate — a potentially welcome rebound for a chain that has spent much of the year fighting to win back traffic. Walmart's U.S. comparable sales are expected to land close to consensus, around 2.7%, with earnings per share near $0.65.

None of the retailers have yet issued specific holiday-quarter guidance ahead of their reports, which means Wall Street will be parsing management's commentary on November and December spending trends as closely as the headline numbers themselves.

THE KEY THING TO WATCH IS MANAGEMENT COMMENTARY ON THE HOLIDAY SEASON

Why it matters beyond the stock price

Home improvement spending has been a bellwether for the broader economy for much of this year, with Home Depot and Lowe's both working through a prolonged housing-market slowdown that's kept big-ticket renovation projects on hold for many homeowners. A stronger-than-expected comp number from either chain would suggest that slump may finally be easing; a miss would reinforce worries that higher-for-longer borrowing costs are still weighing on big purchases.

Target and Walmart, meanwhile, offer a read on something more immediate: how much pricing pressure from tariffs and grocery inflation has eaten into discretionary spending ahead of the holidays. Target in particular has had a rough stretch, and a strong comparable-sales beat could mark its first real sign of a turnaround under pressure to win back market share from Walmart.

What's next

Investors should brace for a busy five trading days. Beyond the four marquee retailers, Ross Stores reports November 19 and Best Buy follows November 24 — the latter under incoming chief executive Jason Bonfig, who takes over amid his own test of whether the electronics chain can hold its ground through the holiday crunch. Taken together, the week amounts to the clearest read yet on how American shoppers are feeling about their wallets this season.