Israel's Oct. 27 parliamentary election produced no clear winner, and four days later the country still doesn't know who will form its next government — a deadlock that now rests on roughly a dozen uncounted "double envelope" ballots and the willingness of Arab-led parties to play kingmaker.

With more than 84% of votes counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc held at 54 seats — seven short of the 61 needed to govern — while the bloc backing his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, stood at 49, according to a live count tracked by Jewish News UK. The Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am parties combined for 17 seats, leaving neither major bloc anywhere near a governing majority on its own.

The ballots that could decide everything

Both camps claimed victory on election night, and both are still waiting on the votes that could actually settle it. So-called "double envelope" ballots — cast by soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and other absentee voters — could be worth roughly 12 seats once fully tabulated, a swing large enough to flip the outcome in either direction, according to Khaleej Times. A full vote tally was expected by Friday, Oct. 30, with Israel's official results formally certified a week after the election, on Nov. 4.

NEITHER BLOC REACHES THE 61 SEATS NEEDED TO GOVERN WITHOUT ARAB-LED PARTIES

That math puts Israel's Arab-led parties in an unusually powerful position. Joint List and Ra'am have historically stayed out of governing coalitions, but a Netanyahu bloc stuck at 54 seats — or an Eisenkot bloc that can't clear 61 either — means one or both camps may have to court lawmakers they've spent years treating as untouchable, according to Al Jazeera's analysis of the vote.

A fractured right-wing bloc

Complicating Netanyahu's path further is tension within his own camp: regional reporting describes a deepening rift between the prime minister and far-right allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich over how a governing coalition should be structured, with Netanyahu reportedly favoring a partnership built around Eisenkot's Yashar party — an idea Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit has publicly disputed.

Analysts quoted across regional coverage have floated several possible outcomes: a protracted coalition negotiation that eventually produces a government, a Netanyahu caretaker administration unable to secure a working majority, or — if talks collapse entirely — a path toward yet another national election.

What's next

With formal results due Nov. 4, coalition talks are expected to intensify through the coming week regardless of exactly where the final seat count lands. Whoever ultimately leads the next government inherits a country still absorbing the aftermath of the Gaza war and a political map that has now delivered repeated elections without a decisive majority for either side.