With Israel's general election eight days away, polling points to a near-dead heat that neither of the country's two main political blocs can resolve on its own — leaving Arab parties and the Knesset's ultra-Orthodox factions holding outsized leverage over who ultimately governs.

Averages of mainstream Israeli polls give the broader opposition around 58 of the Knesset's 120 seats to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition's 52, according to an analysis published by the Arab Center Washington DC. Even united, Jewish-led opposition parties fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority — meaning Arab parties, projected to win 10 to 11 seats depending on whether they run jointly or separately, could again prove decisive, just as the Ra'am party did in forming Israel's government in 2021–22.

Likud and the upstart challenger running neck-and-neck

The most striking shift in the race has been the rise of Yashar, the new party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, which several recent polls now show running even with Netanyahu's Likud — one survey had both parties at 22 seats, another at 23 apiece. Eisenkot, along with opposition figures Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, has ruled out leaning on Arab parties to form a government, complicating the math for whichever bloc comes out ahead.

EVEN A FULLY UNITED, JEWISH-LED OPPOSITION FALLS SHORT OF THE 61 SEATS NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY

Netanyahu's own coalition has leaned for years on ultra-Orthodox parties, trading support for softened enforcement of military conscription requirements on their communities — an arrangement Eisenkot, Lapid and Bennett have all said they won't continue if they take power. Public opinion on both flanks is sharply divided: one Maariv poll found 70% of Israeli voters would support adding an Arab party to a post-election coalition, while 83% said they opposed including ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, parties.

The vote was triggered when the Knesset dissolved in July, setting up the October 27 election. Analysts caution that Arab parties remain fragmented going into the vote, with some smaller factions at risk of falling short of the electoral threshold altogether — a wrinkle that could scramble the seat math yet again before ballots are even cast.