Explosions rang out overnight in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, after a seven-group rebel alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front claimed it had struck a military headquarters with drones — what would be the first known aerial attack on the city since the country's civil war reignited just over a week ago.

The blasts, reported in the early hours of October 1, mark a dramatic escalation of fighting that has spread from the northern Tigray region into neighboring Amhara and Afar, according to Al Jazeera and CNBC Africa. Reuters, which both outlets cited, said it could not independently verify the rebel alliance's claim, and Ethiopian government officials did not respond to requests for comment. No visible damage was reported near the targeted base.

The numbers behind the chaos: the opposition coalition, calling itself the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, groups seven armed factions under the TPLF banner. Federal troops have pushed to within roughly 40 kilometers (25 miles) of Tigray's regional capital, Mekelle, whose airport rebel forces seized from federal police just over a week earlier, forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum, according to Africanews. In Afar region, government forces say they have recaptured the towns of Erebti and Abaala near the Tigray border, while roughly 80,000 Afar residents remain trapped in the conflict zone and tens of thousands more have fled their homes.

A Fragile Truce Finally Breaks

The fighting marks the most serious breakdown yet of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the 2020-2022 Tigray war, a conflict that killed hundreds of thousands of people and left Ethiopia's north in ruins. Many of that accord's provisions — including full disarmament and the return of displaced populations — were never fully implemented, and tensions simmered for years before boiling over into renewed combat.

Addis Ababa has also moved against Eritrea, accusing Asmara of "direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence" in support of the rebel alliance. Ethiopia has ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours and announced it is closing its own embassy in Asmara — a rupture that raises the specter of the two neighbors' bloody 1998-2000 border war resurfacing. Eritrea has denied backing the opposition forces.

Opposition drone capability reaching the capital "would be a political game-changer," undermining government claims the capital remains unaffected and eroding federal forces' tactical air advantage, said Edward Bach, senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.

The African Union and United Nations have urged restraint and warned of mounting risks to civilians and aid operations, as electricity and internet service remain cut across much of Tigray, hampering independent reporting from the region.

Ethiopia's government has responded to the capital blasts by banning drone flights over Addis Ababa and its surrounding areas. With federal forces closing in on Mekelle and rebel fighters claiming reach into the capital itself, the next flashpoint will likely be whether either side accepts outside mediation — or whether Africa's second-most populous nation slides back into the kind of full-scale war that devastated its north only a few years ago.