President Trump threatened Thursday to immediately double tariffs on Mexico unless the government halts a migrant caravan now moving north toward the U.S. border, making the threat in a Truth Social post that did not specify which tariff rates or products would be affected. Existing U.S. duties on Mexico include a 25% tariff on Mexican-made autos and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, though it remains unclear whether either would be targeted for an increase, or whether Trump intends a broader, across-the-board hike.

Estimates of the caravan's size varied by outlet: Reuters put the group, which left the southern city of Tapachula earlier this week, at roughly 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, while other outlets reported figures closer to 2,000. The New York Post reported it is the third such caravan to attempt a crossing through Mexico since September, underscoring how migration flows have continued even as enforcement has intensified on both sides of the border.

Echoes of a 2019 standoff

The threat closely mirrors a May 2019 episode in which Trump threatened escalating tariffs on all Mexican imports, starting at 5% and rising toward 25%, before backing off after Mexico agreed to step up enforcement against migrants moving through its territory. Thursday's post did not lay out a similar ladder or a deadline for Mexico to respond, leaving open how quickly — or whether — he intends to follow through.

MEXICO'S PESO WEAKENED TO ITS LOWEST POINT OF THE TRADING SESSION AFTER THE THREAT

Markets reacted quickly: the Mexican peso fell to its session low following the post, though Mexico's government had not issued a formal response by Thursday afternoon. Trump explicitly tied the caravan to the outcome of last week's midterm elections, in which Democrats made sweeping gains; Reuters reported that some migrants interviewed along the caravan's route said they believed the Democratic wins could improve their odds of eventually settling and finding work in the U.S.

The renewed tariff threat lands as the administration separately touts record deportation and arrest numbers from ICE for the just-completed fiscal year, part of a broader immigration posture the White House has leaned on heavily heading into a newly divided Washington. It is unclear whether Thursday's threat will trigger the kind of rapid diplomatic scramble that defused the 2019 standoff, or whether it becomes a longer-running flashpoint between the two governments.