Hours before polls open across the country, the North Carolina Senate race looks less like a nail-biter and more like a potential blowout — and the man on the wrong end of it is Michael Whatley, the sitting chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Multiple late polls show former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper opening a double-digit lead over Whatley in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. A survey from East Carolina University's Center for Survey Research, conducted Oct. 26-29, had Cooper ahead 54% to 45%. A final High Point University/YouGov poll put Cooper's lead at 14 points among likely voters, and an Elon University poll taken in late September and early October showed Cooper up 52% to 39%. No public poll in the race's final stretch has shown Whatley ahead, according to The Hill's review of the data.

A seat nobody expected to be this close to flipping

North Carolina has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008, and CNN's final rundown of the cycle's most vulnerable seats named it the Senate seat most likely to flip on Tuesday. Republicans have reportedly pulled back some spending in the race's closing days, a sign of how the national party's calculus has shifted as Cooper's advantage has held.

"WE ARE CONFIDENT THIS RACE WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN, AND MICHAEL WHATLEY WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER." — WHATLEY CAMPAIGN

Whatley, who chaired the North Carolina GOP from 2019 to 2024 before taking the national party's helm, entered the race last year with an endorsement from President Trump after Trump's daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, passed on running and stayed at Fox News. His campaign has pointed to a handful of tighter internal and partisan polls — including one from the Carolina Journal showing Cooper's lead closer to 10 points — as evidence the race isn't settled. "We are confident this race will continue to tighten, and Michael Whatley will win in November," his campaign has said.

Cooper, who served two terms as governor and built a reputation as a disciplined, moderate campaigner who outperformed his party in a red-trending state, has leaned on that record as he seeks to become the first Democrat to represent North Carolina in the Senate in nearly two decades. His campaign has framed the race as a referendum on affordability and the Trump administration's economic record, themes Democrats have pushed nationally this cycle.

The North Carolina contest is one of 35 Senate seats on Tuesday's ballot, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats nationally to flip control of the chamber. Thirty-six governorships are also up for grabs. Polls across the state open Tuesday morning, with results expected to start coming in Tuesday night.