With the November 3 midterms five days away, Mississippi's Senate race has quietly become one of the cycle's watch points, as national Democratic groups pour money into a long-shot bid to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

Hyde-Smith has led Democrat Scott Colom, a circuit court judge, in most public surveys this fall. A Data for Progress poll in August had her ahead 47%-41% among likely voters, and most forecasters, including the Cook Political Report, still rate the seat Likely Republican as of mid-to-late October. But one recent survey found Hyde-Smith's lead shrinking to six points — and the two candidates essentially tied at 40% apiece once voters heard short biographies of each.

Why Democrats are spending anyway

That narrowing is enough for Senate Democrats' campaign arm to take a swing. The Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Democratic leadership, has put roughly $1.2 million into Mississippi television advertising to boost Colom, while the Democratic-aligned super PAC American Bridge 21st Century has separately spent about $2.1 million in the race. Independent candidate Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot.

Mississippi hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982, and Donald Trump carried the state by roughly 23 points in 2024. But the spending reflects a broader Democratic strategy this cycle of forcing Republicans to defend seats they'd normally take for granted, stretching GOP resources in the campaign's final stretch.

A STATE TRUMP WON BY 23 POINTS IS SUDDENLY WORTH $3 MILLION.

Republicans aren't taking chances either. President Trump rallied for Hyde-Smith in Corinth on October 26, telling the crowd he'd noticed the race getting closer than expected. Mississippi's senior senator, Roger Wicker, has said he still believes Hyde-Smith holds a solid lead despite what he's called an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats nationally this cycle.

Betting markets remain confident in a Hyde-Smith win — Polymarket had her at roughly 88% as of late October — but the late money and the informed-ballot numbers suggest Colom's camp sees a path, however narrow, to a historic upset. The result will be known starting the night of November 3.