Georgia's GOP Hoped for a Fight. Polls Say Ossoff Is Running Away With It
Five days before the midterms, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a commanding double-digit polling edge over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in a race the GOP once circled as a flip opportunity.
Georgia Republicans spent much of this cycle eyeing Sen. Jon Ossoff's seat as one of their best midterm pickup chances. With early voting underway and Election Day five days out, the numbers tell a very different story.
A PollCheck average of recent Georgia Senate surveys, updated October 27, has Ossoff at 51.0% to Republican Rep. Mike Collins' 42.4% — a nearly nine-point spread the model translates into a 98% win probability for the incumbent Democrat. That tracks with individual polls released over the past two weeks: an AJC/University of Georgia poll conducted October 7–15 put Ossoff ahead 48% to 40% among likely voters, outside the survey's 3.1-point margin of error, while a separate survey of 755 likely voters conducted October 15–17 showed a similar roughly seven-point gap.
A Race That Was Supposed to Be Close
Georgia has been a genuine swing state in recent cycles — Joe Biden carried it by less than half a percentage point in 2020, and both of its Senate seats have flipped in the past five years. Ossoff himself won his seat in a 2021 runoff by just over two points. That history is exactly why national Republicans poured money and attention into recruiting Collins, a sitting congressman, to challenge him this fall.
A NEARLY NINE-POINT LEAD, WITH A 98% WIN PROBABILITY
But as multiple outlets have reported through October, Collins has struggled to close the gap even as outside groups spend heavily on the race. A YouGov survey cited among the recent polling had Ossoff ahead 51% to 41% among all respondents, while an InsiderAdvantage poll back in August — when the race looked tighter — had Ossoff at 50% to Collins' 43%, suggesting the incumbent's lead has only grown as Election Day approaches rather than narrowed.
Georgia's governor's race, running on the same ballot, has reportedly stayed far closer than the Senate contest, a split that strategists in both parties say reflects how much Ossoff has worked to build a personal brand distinct from national Democratic politics since his 2021 win. With early voting already underway across the state, Republicans now face a narrowing window to change the trajectory of a race they once hoped would help decide control of the Senate. Final results will be known after polls close on November 3.