The destruction of the Chinese space station in the earth’s atmosphere and the fall of any parts of it on Earth will happen between Saturday night March 31 and late Sunday afternoon on April 1 (GMT time), according to the latest estimate of the European Space Agency.
According to the Renewable Energy Sources, the ESA points out that it is very difficult to make a very accurate forecast, partly because of the changing solar activity, ie the currents of the particles that the Sun sends to Earth and which affect the Earth’s geomagnetic field .
In fact, Sun has been in the last few days quieter than expected, with the result that there is a quieter space “time” around our planet. This, according to ESA, means that the density in the upper part of the atmosphere, through which Tiangong-1 is moving, did not increase as planned, which would pull the uncontrolled space station down faster.
This development, according to ESA, has brought somewhat behind the new (and even uncertain) forecast, although 1 April is still considered the most probable day. The possible fall zone lies between 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south of Ecuador.
“Tiangong-1” was China’s first space laboratory, launched in 2011 to help the country acquire know-how to build and set into motion a larger manned station planned for the decade of 2020. During his life, Tiangong-1 had visited three Chinese missions: the first in 2011 was the Shenzhou robotic spacecraft, followed by two more in 2012 and 2013, the Shenzhou 9 and 10 manned boats respectively.